As many clinicians know, by the year 2020, the U.S. is expected to face a critical physician shortage. Seven years ago, in response to this ominous forecast, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) encouraged medical schools to increase enrollment 30 percent by 2015. Utilizing the 2002-2003 first-year enrollment of 16,488 students as a basis for measurement, this translates into an additional 4,946 students per year.
Consistent with the newly released Results of the 2012 Medical School Enrollment Survey—published during the AAMC’s Center for Workforce Studies’ annual Physician Workforce Research Conference—medical schools are in line with the proposed target, with first-year enrollment in 2017-2018 projected to reach 21,434.
According to the findings, with regard to the anticipated growth from 2002 to 2017, 62 percent will be at the 125 medical schools that were accredited as of 2002. Schools established since 2002 will be responsible for 31 percent of the growth. The remaining 7 percent is expected to come from schools currently in Liaison Committee on Medical Education applicant-school standing.
This is good news, particularly as the number of Americans eligible for healthcare coverage is expected to swell to 30 million when the Affordable Care Act takes effect next year. But unfortunately, even with the implementation of increased enrollment and new schools, the demand for qualified providers—especially those who can deliver primary care, such as family practice physicians, internists and pediatricians—will exceed the supply.
Some medical schools have started to introduce policies and programs geared to encourage students to consider primary care practice. And while enrollment is currently in keeping with the AAMC’s recommendations, there are challenges, as reported by ModernPhysician.com.
Last week, Darrell Kirch, AAMC president and CEO, addressed one major concern through a news release. “Increasing enrollments show that medical schools are doing their part to avert the shortage of more than 90,000 primary care and specialty doctors this nation faces by 2020,” he said. “However, this will not result in a single new practicing physician unless Congress acts now to lift the cap on residency training positions.”
Clearly, evaluating other alternatives is a must. Yet not surprisingly, one of the best solutions to the physician shortage remains the use of locum tenens providers. Facilities that use these independent contractors are able to avoid compromising continuity of care by providing patients with essential services sans interruption. And physicians who accept temporary placements at hospitals, teaching facilities, group and solo practices, and other clinical settings are able to avoid many of the conundrums—like malpractice matters, reimbursements and facility politics—that go hand-in-hand with permanent practice.
Resolving future healthcare staffing issues will require a combination of new approaches and innovative thinking. As academic medicine strives to stay on point with expanded enrollment, locum tenens physicians will continue to provide a necessary supplement to facilities in the U.S. and beyond.
